Panathinaikos paying for time in the wilderness

Panathinaikos are paying for the mistakes of the Alafouzos administration on the European front. AGONAsport takes a closer look.

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At this point, successfully overturning the ban imposed by UEFA in 2018 looks doubtful, especially due to the widespread impact of the coronavirus pandemic. However, it is intriguing to see where exactly Panathinaikos would fit in, should they manage to obtain a European spot and participate in a continental tournament next season.

Of course, the team still has to avoid finishing in sixth place when the Super League eventually resumes. Finishing inside the top-five would give the Greens a European spot for next season (pretending there was no suspension). Obtaining a top-two berth to feature in the UEFA Champions League qualifiers is clearly a longshot, but a UEFA Europa League spot is more than achievable.

Due to an array of underwhelming poor finishes in the league domestically, the Trifylli are currently ranked in the 211th spot in the UEFA Coefficient Rankings (see below image). This is a result of the club not being allowed to participate in any continental competition since the 2017-18 Europa League qualifiers (where they were knocked out by Athletic Bilbao). Since Panathinaikos have failed to make even a group stage appearance since the 2016-17 Europa League, the club’s points and ranking have taken a hit. The below image illustrates just how much the Greens have fallen over the past decade.

In stark contrast, at the same time rivals, Olympiacos are comfortably inside the top-50, and PAOK are easily in the top-100.

Olympiacos’ higher ranking came to the fore last summer as they obtained an easier path to qualification for the Champions League, as opposed to League winners PAOK. The Reds faced Viktoria Plzen in the second qualifying round, before beating Istanbul Basaksehir and Krasnodar to qualify for the group stages. Meanwhile, PAOK faced a familiar foe in Ajax in the third qualifying round and lost.

In the most likely scenario that Panathinaikos enter the second qualifying round in the Europa League, the team would even struggle to be seeded for the draw. Zrinjski Mostar of Bosnia were an unseeded team last summer with a score of 5.250 (see below image obtained from Contra.gr). If Panathinaikos were to enter the second qualifying round, they would have roughly the same coefficient total.

Aris and Atromitos both struggled in last summer's qualifiers and never made it to the group stage as they were unseeded in the third qualifying round and bowed out early on. Both clubs were seeded in the second qualifying round, however, and dispatched their opponents to march on.

Even if the Greens managed to emerge as winners in the second qualifying round, the opponents would only get harder in the third qualifying round and in the play-off round. This demonstrates why it pays to be a consistent performer on the European front. Panathinaikos, even if the team improved considerably on paper, would be paying for the past mistakes of the Alafouzos administration.

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