Two critical matches for Olympiacos, PAOK outsiders to advance
After Thursday’s results in the UEFA Europa League, Olympiacos will play two important matches in the final rounds of the group stages while PAOK will need help from others to advance to the knockout phase. AGONAsport looks at the scenarios for both teams.
Olympiacos did what was expected of them on Thursday, taking down a weak, but challenging Dudelange side. The Erythrolefki netted four first half goals to pounce their opponents 5:1 in the end while recording their 6th biggest win in club history on the continental stage.
PAOK, on the other hand, were handed a second consecutive defeat to Hungarian outfit, Vidi, falling with a disappointing 1:0 scoreline at the Groupama Arena in Budapest. The Thessalonikis saw their 11 game unbeaten run on the road in all competitions come to an end as their chances of making the knockout stages at this point in time look to slim.
OLYMPIACOS’ SCENARIOS
Olympiacos are currently tied for second place in their group along with AC Milan with six points from four matches. Real Betis lead the group with eight points while Dudelange round up the group without a point. The group remains open for all three sides as far as top spot but also second place.
In the best case scenario, two wins for Olympiacos over Betis (away) and Milan (home) will give the Greek side first place in the group.
In the fight for second place, both Betis and Milan still have one match against point-less Dudelange and for the matters of scenarios, the two teams will finish with at least 11 (Betis) and 10 (Milan) points, respectively. Thus, Olympiacos need to at least get to 10 points (one more win) to been in contention to qualify, which still might not be enough (depending on tie breakers).
Regardless of what Olympiacos do in Spain on matchday five, a 2:0 or greater win (3:0, 4:1 etc) against Milan on the final matchday at the Karaiskakis stadium will give Olympiacos second spot in the group. A 3:1 Olympiacos win means that second place will come down to overall goal differential while a Milan win, a draw, a loss by one goal, or loss by two goals if Milan score two or more goals (4:2, 5:3) will see the Italian side through.
If Olympiacos grab a point in Spain, their task is simple on the final matchday: defeat Milan at home and the Erythrolefki are through.
An Olympiacos win against Betis in three weeks would put Olympiacos in pole position to advance, however a draw against Milan on the final matchday could very well leave the Greek side out. In this case scenario, there would be a three way tie and Olympiacos would finish third (behind Betis & Milan), unless Olympiacos defeat Betis by two or more goals in Spain.
Standings
Betis 8 pts (+4)
AC Milan 7 pts (+2)
Olympiacos 7 pts (+2)
Dudelange 0 pts (-10)
Fixtures:
Matchday 5: BETOLY/MILDUD
Matchday 6: OLYMIL/DUDBET
PAOK’S SCENARIOS
PAOK are currently tied for last place in their group along with BATE Borisov with three points from four matches. Chelsea, who have already clinched their place in the knockout stages, lead the group with a perfect 12 points while Vidi are second and in pole position to advance to the knockout stages with six points.
Although PAOK trail Vidi by three points, the Greek side will need to overcome a four point deficit as Vidi hold the tie-breaker between the two sides (have a better head-to-head record). At this point, Vidi control their own fate and not PAOK.
Looking at the worst case scenario, the Hungarians can book their place in the round of 32 if they defeat BATE on matchday 5, regardless of what PAOK do in their final two matches. PAOK will also be in a tough position if Vidi grab a point away to BATE as that would leave PAOK with no option but to defeat Chelsea, in London, to remain alive going into the final matchday.
Without a doubt, PAOK will be hoping for a BATE win over Vidi on matchday five which will keep the Dikefalos tou Vora well in the hunt for second spot. In this scenario, PAOK would remain in contention even with a loss in London, meaning that their final match at home to BATE will be a “must win” game. This could leave all three teams tied with six points and the tie-breaker will come down to best goal differential between the games involving these three teams (not overall goal differential). This is assuming that Vidi lose to an indifferent Chelsea side on matchday six.
The picture will be clearer after the next round of games where PAOK could or could not remain mathematically alive for a place in the knockout stages.
Standings
Chelsea 12 pts (+5)
Vidi 6 pts (0)
PAOK 3 pts (-1)
BATE 0 pts (-3)
Fixtures:
Matchday 5: CHEPAOK/BATEVIDI
Matchday 6: PAOKBATE/VIDICHE
