What Panathinaikos Need to Avoid Relegation
Generally speaking, it is unthinkable that this scenario is being considered, but due to the dire financial state the club finds itself in off the field, coupled with the subsequent limitations placed on the club in the transfer market and the 6 point deduction before a ball is kicked, the Greens find themselves in an extremely precarious position.
Watch LIVE GREEK TV including full GREEK SPORTS coverage from AGONASport.com!
Things are no clearer off the field in terms of the financial status of the club and the ongoing ownership issue (with Pan Asia still seemingly close to taking over). However, nothing is concrete heading into the new season. As united and strong-minded the playing group and coaching staff are, this uncertainty will undoubtedly have an affect on them.
Rival clubs have spent all summer strengthening their rosters to set themselves up for success, whereas Panathinaikos has to sit back and primarily work with what it has. The club can sign an unlimited amount of Greeks under 23 as part of the punishment for failing to obtain a licence to participate in this season’s Championship. How much of an impact can such players have being thrown in the deep end at such a young age? Time will tell but it is akin to finding a ‘diamond in the rough’.
Giorgos Donis and Nikos Dabizas know the squad is painfully short up top and lacks a proven goalscorer. They can only sign one foreigner over 23 and it is no shock they have opted to search high and wide to find a forward that will score the goals to steer the team to safety as quick as possible.
Taking all of the above factors into account, a 6 point deficit is bigger than it sounds at first glance. The Trifylli has been lucky in the sense that the draw to start the season is fairly kind, however, this means that the gap needs to be recovered as quick as possible before the big derbies roll around after the first couple of months. In order to achieve this, the team needs to hit the ground running.
The team will also lose its vociferous and intimidating support as club management has opted to move away from Leoforos and struck up a deal to play at OAKA. The move away from the club’s spiritual home will affect the crowds, especially as fans sit further away at OAKA and it is harder to create such an atmosphere in such a big stadium. It is worth noting that only the a strong home record kept the team away from a relegation battle last season.
On top of all of this, the Super League has been restructured and there will now be 3 teams relegated this season, rather than the standard 2 everyone became accustomed to. This is due to the fact that the 2019-20 edition of the Championship will contain 14 teams, down from 16. As a result, 14th, 15th and 16th will be relegated, so the Greens would need to finish at least 13th to beat the drop.
It is worth examining what has occurred in the last 15 years of the top flight (taking into account there were 18 teams in the division from 2013-2015) to see how many points Panathinaikos will require to survive.
The average is 31 points. This would be the number of points needed to survive on most occasions, but if the -6 is factored in, the Greens will in fact require 37 points (based on the averages again). In the last 15 years, the best case scenario for the Greens in this case, has been 13th finishing on only 26 points, way down from the aforementioned averages. This came in the 2003-04 season, ironically Panathinaikos won the double that season.
In season 2004-05, it was 27 points but for every season up until 2016-17, that figure was above the 30 point mark. In 2016-17, Asteras Tripolis and Larissa ended up on 28 points. Consequently, the ‘magical’ figure that teams in a relegation battle should be aiming for is 31 (37 in case of Panathinaikos).
Last season, the Trifylli ended up on 10 wins, 10 draws and 10 losses - 40 points, but after a series of punishments ended up on 32. Such a number may not be good enough for this upcoming season.
