“Indifferent” qualifier against Finland to play key role in “Project Qatar”
AGONAsport’s Sarantos Kaperonis explains the importance of Monday’s qualifier against Finland and how the result in this “indifferent” fixture will play a key role in Greece’s “Project Qatar.”
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After some time, fans of the Greek national team have something to cheer about and look forward to. Just a few months ago, the Ethniki was a team in shambles, falling apart on national television and dropping points at home to minnows Liechtenstein. However, things have looked to turn for the better under the management of Dutchman John van ‘t Schip (JVS).
Many - including myself - questioned the appointment of JVS by the Hellenic Football Federation (EPO) as the 55-year-old manager did not have a convincing track record. His start with the Greek team was one to forget as the Ethniki fell away to Finland in a critical Euro 2020 qualifier before playing to an embarrassing 1-1 draw with minnows Liechtenstein in Athens.
To be fair, JVS and his staff had little time to prepare for his new managerial position as Greece head coach. Putting aside his dismal start, JVS has shaped a new-look Ethniki that has left a sense of optimism for Greek fans after three convincing displays away to Italy (2-0 loss), at home to Bosnia (2-1 win) and away to Armenia (0-1 win). Although we are in the early stages of JVS’s leadership, things are certainly moving in the right direction.
It is truly amazing what a little nudge of confidence can do to a team. The talent in the Greek national team has always been there - surely enough to defeat the likes of Armenia and Liechtenstein - but the extra belief and inspiration from the coach had been lacking. JVS and his staff have done a brilliant job of instilling a sense of belief in these players and getting 110% effort from all of them.
“Project Qatar”
With JVS arriving at a time of disarray for the Ethniki, he mentioned that the goal for this team is to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. He has named this task as “Project Qatar.” When he arrived, many thought Qatar was out of the question for this national team, especially after the home results against Italy, Armenia and Liechtenstein.
However, with the current, yet still acute turnaround of the national team, “Project Qatar” might not seem so improbable after all. JVS has ample time to prepare his men for the qualifiers which will begin in March 2021 with one final Euro 2020 qualifier against Finland and the second edition of the UEFA Nations League next autumn. This will give the Dutchman and his players at least seven matches before the World Cup qualifiers begin two springs from now.
With the first piece of the project somewhat fulfilled, sparking true belief in “Project Qatar,” the second piece of the puzzle will be played out on Monday evening against Finland at the OAKA.
Yes, one might say that the match has no significance on the final Group J standings as Greece have no mathematical chance of qualifying for Euro 2020 while Finland have booked their ticket to next summer’s event. However, Monday’s match has extreme significance in “Project Qatar” in the form of the FIFA Rankings.
Although it has not been confirmed by FIFA or UEFA, the FIFA World Rankings are expected to be the criteria in seeding nations for the World Cup qualifying draw. As it stands now, Greece are ranked 31st among UEFA nations in the FIFA Rankings while Finland are ranked 30th, with just a few points separating the two countries.
If Greece defeat Finland on Monday at the OAKA, they will leapfrog the Finns in the World Rankings and be ranked 30th among UEFA nations.
What does this mean for the national team? If the FIFA Rankings are used to seed teams in the World Cup qualifying draw, Greece will be seeded in Pot 3 as opposed to Pot 4. In other words, Greece will have theoretically two higher-ranked opponents in their World Cup qualifying group as opposed to three higher-ranked opponents.
In a World Cup qualifying process where only the group winner gains automatic passage to Qatar 2022 and the second-placed team fights in a qualifying playoff, Greece’s seeding for the draw is extremely important in JVS’s “Project Qatar.” This could be the difference in having a qualifying group with France, Ukraine and Russia (if Greece were seeded in Pot 4) as opposed to a group with France, Ukraine and Belarus (if Greece were seeded in Pot 3).
Current teams in Pot 3: Northern Ireland, Ireland, Russia, Iceland, Czech Republic, Norway, Bosnia, Hungary, Scotland, Finland
Current teams in Pot 4: Greece, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Slovenia, Albania, Skopje, Belarus, Israel, Georgia, Cyprus
The difference in quality between Pot 3 and Pot 4 is evident, making Monday’s match a key piece to the success of “Project Qatar.” A point of clarification for those that are unaware of the draw process: a nation cannot be drawn with another nation from the same Pot. Thus, if Greece are placed in Pot 3, they cannot be drawn with another team from Pot 3 in World Cup qualifying.
In the last World Cup qualifying campaign, Greece were seeded in Pot 3 and had two higher-seeded opponents in their group in Belgium and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Greece managed to claim second place and make it to the playoff, where they fell to eventual finalists Croatia.
In Euro 2020 qualifying, Greece were seeded in Pot 4 and thus had to fight for a top-two finish with three other sides, Italy, Finland and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The draw gave Greece a great opportunity to claim a ticket to Euro 2020 - an opportunity wasted, to say the least - but other groups would not have been as inviting. If Greece are placed in Pot 4 in World Cup qualifying, the Ethniki might not be so “lucky.”
I surely hope that the Greek staff and federation (I won’t hold my breath with this federation and the national team) have done their homework and realize how important Monday’s match is for the World Cup qualifying campaign. If this match is classified as indifferent, similar to how the final UEFA Nations League match against Estonia was characterized (see “side note two” below), it could prove fatal to any hopes of qualifying for the next World Cup.
Side Note One: In the Euro 2020 qualifying draw, the final rankings of the 2019 UEFA Nations League were used to seed the teams and not the FIFA Rankings. With the Nations League now entering the life of the international game, this could play a role in how teams are seeded for the FIFA World Cup qualifying draw. FIFA and UEFA have yet to release a draw date or criteria on how teams will be seeded. Nonetheless, the Greek team should do their due diligence and secure a Pot 3 seed via the FIFA Rankings on Monday with a win against Finland.
Side Note Two: On the final matchday of last autumn’s UEFA Nations League, Greece were out of the running for a first-place finish in Group B of League C. A first-place finish resulted in a spot in the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs. However, under certain conditions, a second-place finish in the group could ensure a spot in the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs. Greece went into the final matchday at home (!) to Estonia knowing that only a draw (!), not a win, would be enough to secure second place. The match was classified as “indifferent” by the Greek federation, coaching staff and even the players when it was anything but that. Read more on that here. As a result, Greece fell 0-1 to Estonia while Hungary defeated Finland 1-0 and took second place in the Nations League group. How has this affected Greece one year later? Had Greece claimed second place - again to reiterate, a draw against Estonia would have secured second place in the group - the Ethniki would MATHEMATICALLY be assured a place in the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs and would be given one last chance, next spring, to qualify for next summer’s event. In school, they teach you to do your homework for a reason…
Side Note Three: Despite an extremely disappointing qualifying campaign, it is truly amazing how close Greece came to qualifying for Euro 2020 via Group J. I am not one to look back on things, but the current group standings really show how much of a wasted chance this campaign was. Finland, who are no unbeatable team, have already booked their ticket to Euro 2020 as they site in second place with 18 points. Greece sit in third with 11 points. Had Greece defeated Armenia and Liechtenstein at home, two matches where the three points were highly expected, the Ethniki would currently have 16 points and would be hosting Finland on Monday in a do-or-die match for a place at Euro 2020 (a win would have sent Greece to Euro 2020). In another scenario, keeping the loss to Armenia on the cards, had Greece drawn in Tampere against Finland - a match that should have ended in a draw if it had not been for a clumsy second-half penalty from Dimitri Kourbelis - and defeated Liechtenstein, Greece would have 14 points while Finland would have 16 points. Again, another scenario that would have set up Greece in a do-or-die matchup on Monday. It is truly a shame this opportunity has gone to waste…
