Tokyo 2020: Should Greece expect the worst?
With just over eight months to go until the start of the 2020 Olympics, AGONAsport’s Andrew Stamas digs into why Greek sports fans may have to lower their medal count expectations.
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At the beginning of the year, I wrote an article with an optimistic outlook, talking about Greece's numerous medal hopes for Tokyo 2020. I mentioned the possibility of Greece doing even better in Tokyo than in Rio 2016, where Greece won six medals (three of them being gold).
Since that article was published, many of the Greek athletes mentioned have failed to impress in 2019 for various reasons, which include injuries, inactivity, and mediocre results.
Shooter Anna Korakaki made history in Rio by winning gold in the 25 m pistol and bronze in the 10 m air pistol, at the age of 20. It was always going to be difficult for her to duplicate her Rio success, as shooting is a sport that often sees surprise results, and rarely sees consistency. For shooting’s standards, Korakaki has been extremely consistent since Rio, winning several medals at major international competitions. She is still ranked number one in the world in the 10 m air pistol, but has fallen to number seven in the world in the 25 m pistol event. The 23-year-old from Drama remains one of Greece’s biggest hopes to win a medal in Tokyo, but winning two medals again (and one being gold!) may be too much to ask.
From 2015 to 2018, gymnast Eleftherios Petrounias won gold in the men’s rings at every major competition (Olympics, World Championships, European Championships). He absolutely dominated the sport, winning eight consecutive gold medals. Shortly after winning gold at the 2018 World Championships, Petrounias needed to get surgery in November. He then withdrew from this year's European Championships, and only returned to competition earlier this month at the World Championships. His long hiatus from competition left us with serious doubts, and this was confirmed as he finished in fourth place at the World Championships. While it once was almost certain that he would win another Olympic gold in Tokyo, it is now uncertain whether he will even qualify for Tokyo.
Like Petrounias, pole vaulter Ekaterini Stefanidi had also dominated her sport, winning medals at seven consecutive major competitions (including five gold medals). This streak was snapped in March, as she failed to reach the podium at the European Indoor Championships, finishing in fourth place. She did bounce back by winning her fourth consecutive Diamond League title. However, her highest jump of 2019 was 4.85 metres, which was her lowest season best in four years. Stefanidi managed to win bronze at the World Championships last month, but she is no longer the overwhelming favorite to win gold at next year’s Olympics.
Sailors Pavlos Kagialis and Panagiotis Mantis won bronze for Greece in Rio in the men’s 470 event. It was unreasonable to expect them to maintain such a high level for another four years, as Mantis will be 38 and Kagialis will be 36 in Tokyo. This was seen, as they finished 2017 ranked second in the world, but now find themselves ranked 13 in late 2019. However, they did manage to finish fourth at this year’s World Championships, but it is unlikely that they will be able to better that and win a medal in Tokyo next year.
Rowers Sofia Asoumanaki and Aikaterini Nikolaidou finished fourth in Rio in the women’s double sculls, where they were the youngest team in the event, aged 19 and 23 respectively. The pair split up shortly after Rio, but later reunited for the 2018 season, where they finished in 11th place at the World Championships. I was hopeful that 2019 would be a good year for them, but I don’t think it could have been any worse. Asoumanaki didn’t compete internationally this year, and does not even seem to be attempting to qualify for Tokyo, as she is currently continuing her studies at the University of Washington. On the other hand, Nikolaidou has switched to the single sculls event, without much success. She is in danger of not qualifying for Tokyo, and recently stated in an interview that she’s unsure if she is even going to try anymore.
Triple jumper Paraskevi Papachristou made her Olympic debut in Rio, coming in eighth place. She then won bronze at the 2017 European Indoor Championships, gold at the 2018 European Championships, and silver at the 2019 European Indoor Championships. She is currently ranked eighth in the world, and had to miss this year’s World Championships due to injury. With most of the top female triple jumpers in the world coming from the Americas, the World Championships would have been a good test for Papachristou before Tokyo. Although she has won a lot of medals in European competitions, her lack of success at the global stage makes it hard to see her winning a medal at next year’s Olympics. The fact that ten athletes have jumped further than her this year is not a positive sign either.
Windsurfer Byron Kokkalanis is one of Greece’s top sailors. He was sixth in London 2012 and fifth in Rio 2016. After a poor 2017 season, he rebounded in 2018 to improve his world ranking from 39 to 9. The former world number one is currently ranked seventh in the world, and finished fourth at this year’s World Championships. He has done well enough to give himself a chance of sneaking a medal in Tokyo, though it must be said that he has a history of coming up short in big competitions. He has finished in the top 7 of an Olympics or World Championships nine times in his career, but has only won one bronze medal.
Pole vaulter Nikoleta Kyriakopoulou was unfortunate to miss the 2016 Olympics due to injury. She then got pregnant, but bounced back by winning silver at the 2018 European Championships and bronze at the 2019 European Indoor Championships. Unfortunately, her 2019 outdoor season was mediocre at best. Kyriakopoulou only cleared 4.60 metres twice in seven competitions (whereas she had cleared that height in six out of six indoor competitions this year). Additionally, she picked up an injury and was sidelined for about two months, before achieving an unimpressive 13th place finish at last month’s World Championships. Definitely not a good sign for the 33-year-old.
With karate being added to the Olympics for the very first time, Eleni Chatziliadou winning gold at the 2018 World Championships added a huge boost to Greece’s Tokyo 2020 medal chances. She’s still ranked number four in the world, and had some decent results in 2019. The karateka from Katerini won silver at the European Championships, and bronze at the European Games. Although her results in major competitions took a slight dip, she’s still doing well overall. One negative is that the current world number one (Ayumi Uekusa) is Japanese, and will have the home advantage in Tokyo. Another negative is that Chatziliadou’s results in smaller competitions have been generally poor, and she is prone to losses against much lower-ranked opponents. Or maybe it’s fine, as long as she keeps doing well on the big stage?
Cyclist Christos Volikakis has been able to maintain a high level throughout 2019 so far. He is still a key contender for a medal in the men’s omnium, where he is ranked number two in the world. Nevertheless, the man from Volos finished 11th at the 2019 World Championships, and seventh at the 2019 European Championships, which is extremely concerning. It must be said that he did win two gold medals at the 2019 European Games though.
Sailor Vasileia Karachaliou was the 2017 European champion in the laser radial event. Once ranked three in the world, her ranking fell down to 17 after the 2018 season, but she is now back up to number four in the world. However, she finished in 16th place at both the 2018 and 2019 World Championships, and was 30th at the 2019 European Championships. The fact that she has done well in small events to improve her world ranking, but has failed to do well at most major competitions is not a good sign going into Tokyo 2020.
At the start of the 2016 Olympics, Stefanos Tsitsipas was ranked 324 in the world, and nowhere near qualifying for the Olympic tennis event. Tsitsipas is now the number six tennis player in the world, and has had a great year overall despite experiencing both ups and downs. Nevertheless, the domination of the “Big Three” of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, and the rise of Daniil Medvedev (who holds a 5-1 head-to-head record against Tsitsipas) make it tough for other male tennis players (like Tsitsipas) to win big titles or even make it to the finals. However, Tsitsipas was able to breakthrough at last week’s ATP Finals, where he won the title. He will need more results like that early next year to better his chances for a medal in Tokyo, but it’s definitely a huge step in the right direction.
Long jumper Miltiadis Tentoglou is one of the few Greek athletes who actually looks more likely to win a medal in Tokyo now than he did before 2019. The 2018 European champion became the 2019 European indoor champion, the 2019 European U23 champion, and won gold for Greece at the European Team Championships. All that is missing from his resume is a medal in a major competition on the global stage at the senior level. He finished tenth at last month’s World Championships, but that showing seems more like a one-off.
Greece’s men’s national basketball team has massively under-achieved in recent years. Sadly, this trend has continued in 2019. Despite having NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo on the national team for the first time in three years, Greece failed to reach the quarterfinals of this year’s FIBA World Cup. After shockingly missing out on Olympic qualification in both 2012 and 2016, Greece are in danger of failing to qualify for the 2020 Olympics as well.
Greece’s men’s national water polo team has been very consistent, reaching at least the quarterfinals in each of the last eight major international competitions since 2013. However, they have managed to win a medal just once in those eight tournaments, a bronze at the 2015 World Championships. After finishing seventh at the 2019 World Championships, the Greek team once again missed out on the podium. This leaves us fans with little hope that they could actually break through in Tokyo. Let’s see if they qualify first…
Like the men’s basketball team, Greece’s women’s national water polo team also surprisingly missed out on both the 2012 and 2016 Olympics. They seemed to be doing well in 2018, as they won silver at the European Championships. Unfortunately, they then finished an unimpressive eighth at the 2019 World Championships, where they lost three matches by nine or more goals (against Russia, Spain, and the United States). Given their poor current form, they might struggle to even qualify for the 2020 Olympics, let alone win a medal.
Pole vaulter Kostas Filippidis was sixth at the 2012 Olympics, and seventh at the 2016 Olympics. Unfortunately, 2019 was his worst year in nearly a decade. Filippidis is particularly good at indoor events, but this year he finished last out of nine athletes in the men’s pole vault final at the European Indoor Championships. He failed to even register a valid jump in the final, despite having been a silver medalist at the previous edition in 2017 (as well as the world indoor champion in 2014). He also failed to reach a final at this year’s World Championships. Given that he was unable to win an Olympic medal even at his peak, it is looking far less likely now for an aging Filippidis.
2018 was a great year for sprinter Maria Belibasaki. In her first year competing in the 400 metres, she won silver at the European Championships and nearly won a medal at the World Indoor Championships (where she was disqualified due to lane infringement). Unfortunately for her, she suffered injuries throughout 2019 and barely competed. She is set to return to action in 2020, but it is hard to be optimistic when there are serious doubts about her current physical condition.
Swimmer Kristian Gkolomeev is actually doing quite well and emerging as a favorite to win a medal in Tokyo, despite looking more like an outsider when the previous article had been published back in January. Gkolomeev finished 13th in the men’s 50 m freestyle at the 2016 Olympics, but has since improved dramatically. He came in seventh place in that event at the 2017 World Championships, and won silver in it at the 2019 World Championships.
Wrestler Maria Prevolaraki has won several medals at World and European Championships throughout her career, but always struggled at the Olympics. She unimpressively finished 15th in 2012 and 10th in 2016. Additionally, Prevolaraki failed to reach the podium at both the World and European Championships in 2019. She did manage to finish in fifth place at the World Championships, showing that she may be able to sneak a medal in Tokyo, but it’s unlikely given her mediocre Olympic history.
Karateka Giorgos Tzanos has won six European Championship medals in his career. Despite not winning any medals at World Championships, he could have been seen as an outsider to win a medal in Tokyo due to his continental success. Nevertheless, he is currently ranked 15th and is unlikely to even qualify for Tokyo at this rate, let alone win a medal.
Swimmer Kalliopi Araouzou had established herself as one of the top medal contenders in the women’s 10 km open water event going into the 2016 Olympics. There, she finished in 11th place, which was still a decent result considering it was her first Olympics and she was expected to improve. However, after finishing 26th at the 2017 World Championships and 37th at the 2019 World Championships, she’s in serious danger of not qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics. Winning a medal looks totally out of the question at the moment.
High jumper Kostas Baniotis had been close to winning his first medal in a major competition on several occasions, before finally doing so this year at the European Indoor Championships where he won silver. Since then, he has regressed, and failed to even qualify for this year’s World Championships. He needs to do well in 2020 to hope to qualify for the Olympics. Winning a medal is unrealistic, as of now at least.
Sailors Maria Bozi and Rafailina Klonaridou had been rising rapidly until this year. The 2017 European junior champions finished 2018 ranked 12 in the world in the 470 event, and a big 2019 season could have seen them become contenders to win a medal in Tokyo. 2019 did not go as planned for the young duo from Thessaloniki, as they are now ranked 19 in the world, and have not shown any reason why they should be considered outsiders to win a medal in Tokyo.
Javelin thrower Ioannis Kyriazis finished sixth at the 2017 World Championships at just 21 years of age. Back then, he seemed like a serious contender for Tokyo 2020. However, after missing most of the last two years due to injury, it would be a huge success if Kyriazis can qualify for Tokyo. Getting a medal would be too much to ask for from him.
Sailor Ioannis Mitakis is currently ranked tenth in the world in the men’s finn class. However, he finished 13th at the last European Championships and 22nd at the last World Championships. His struggles in big events make it hard to see him come close to winning a medal in Tokyo.
It’s been far from a perfect year for Greek sports, but after looking back, I’d still be surprised if the likes of Korakaki and Stefanidi went home from Tokyo empty-handed. We still have some other athletes with decent chances of winning medals, such as Chatziliadou, Gkolomeev, Kokkalanis, Petrounias, Tentoglou, and Tsitsipas. Others like Kagialis/Mantis, Karachaliou, Kyriakopoulou, Mitakis, Nikolaidou, Papachristou, Prevolaraki, Volikakis, and the Greeks in team sports might surprise us in Tokyo and win medals. It’s not looking very likely that we can win 10+ medals in Tokyo, but it is still a possibility. I don’t think the Olympics will be a disaster for us, but given how some of our top athletes have performed this year, we might have to slightly lower our expectations. At this rate, replicating the Rio 2016 tally of six medals seems more realistic than winning much more than that.
On the plus side, there is still a lot of time to go until the Olympics, and a lot can change between now and then. Additonally, some athletes like Araouzou, Baniotis, Belibasaki, Bozi/Klonaridou, Filippidis, Kyriazis, and Tzanos probably only had outside chances at winning medals anyways, so some of them not being in great form at the moment may not prove to be such a big loss to the Greek team after all.
Lastly, there are several Greeks who weren’t really in the question when I wrote the original article, that are now deserving of a mention. Rowers Christina Bourmpou and Maria Kyridou, swimmer Apostolos Christou, fencer Theodora Gkountoura, tennis player Maria Sakkari, and taekwondo practitioner Apostolos Telikostoglou have now established themselves as outside contenders to win medals in Tokyo.
Bourmpou and Kyridou have dominated the women’s pair event at the U23 and junior levels in recent years, and the teenagers from Thessaloniki might surprise in Tokyo should they continue their rapid progression. Christou was 18th in Rio in the men’s 100 m backstroke, 13th at the 2017 World Championships, and tenth at the 2019 World Championships. Another year of improvement plus some luck could see him reach the podium in Tokyo. Gkountoura, competing in the women’s sabre, has been on the rise since failing to qualify for the 2016 Olympics. Ending 2016 ranked 122 in the world, she rose to 77 in 2017, 22 in 2018, and is currently ranked 11th. She was a bronze medalist at this year’s World Championships as well. Sakkari has also improved her ranking after missing out on the Rio Games. After ending 2016 ranked 89 in the world, she improved her ranking to 48 in 2017, 29 in 2018, and 22 in 2019. She also achieved great results in Premier 5 tournaments, reaching the semifinals in Wuhan 2017 and Rome 2019, and the quarterfinals in Cincinnati 2019. Finally, Telikostoglou was a surprise silver medalist at the 2019 World Championships. The 24-year-old from Kozani will look to win Greece’s first Olympic taekwondo medal since 2008.
Only 23 Greek athletes across seven different sports have qualified for Tokyo so far. This number is very small compared to some previous Greek Olympic teams, but there are still several qualification events that have yet to take place.
By: Andrew Stamas
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